I'll get into more of an in-depth recap of this year in Baseball later this week with a post that I'm still thinking about how to structure. For the time being, however, I'll be discussing and evaluating my division predictions for the 2019 season.
I've written my predictions for each MLB season as long as I can remember with 2018 being the first year that I showcased them on the blog. I don't remember how I fared last year, but I don't recall it going all that well.
This year, more so than the past couple of MLB seasons, there were a ton of surprises in regards to individual and team performances. These unexpected results were well pronounced in the final standings, for you'll see how close and far off I was in certain division races.
I also wrote award winner predictions for the 2019 season, but I won't be analyzing those until November when the BBWAA names their picks.
Beginning with the American League East, let's see how I fared.
AL East
1st Place; Boston Red Sox
2nd Place; New York Yankees
3rd Place; Tampa Bay Rays
4th Place; Toronto Blue Jays
5th Place; Baltimore Orioles
1st Place; New York Yankees
2nd Place; Tampa Bay Rays
3rd Place; Boston Red Sox
4th Place; Toronto Blue Jays
5th Place; Baltimore Orioles
Aside from my overly-optimistic attitude surrounding the Boston Red Sox, I was fairly accurate in my AL East predictions. I knew that the Yankees, whether as division champions or wild card winners, would clinch a playoff berth, but I don't think anyone expected them to thrive almost as a result of all their injuries.
The Rays, in spite of designating C.J. Cron for assignment, a move that baffles me to this day, beat Boston out by 12 games for 2nd place. Now, they'll have to turn their attention to tomorrow's 1-game playoff in Oakland.
As for the placement of the last 2 teams, I don't think anyone is shocked.
AL Central
1st Place; Cleveland Indians
2nd Place; Minnesota Twins
3rd Place; Chicago White Sox
4th Place; Kansas City Royals
5th Place; Detroit Tigers
1st Place; Minnesota Twins
2nd Place; Cleveland Indians
3rd Place; Chicago White Sox
4th Place; Kansas City Royals
5th Place; Detroit Tigers
At the beginning of the season, it seemed like a no-brainer that the Indians would capture the NL Central title for the 4th consecutive seasons. The Minnesota Twins, however, under rookie manager and former MLB player Rocco Baldelli, took MLB by storm.
I couldn't name the Twins' starting 9 if I tried, yet this club set the all-time record for most home runs in a season by a single team. Ultimately, they finished with 307 with the 2019 Yankees finishing right behind them at 306.
The White Sox were okay (.447 winning percentage), but the Royals and Tigers highlighted just how mediocre this division is aside from the top 2 teams. The 4th and 5th place finishers each had 100+ losses while the Tigers owned the worst record in baseball this season (47-114).
AL West
1st Place; Houston Astros
2nd Place; Los Angeles Angels
3rd Place; Oakland Athletics
4th Place; Seattle Mariners
5th Place; Texas Rangers
1st Place; Houston Astros
2nd Place; Oakland Athletics
3rd Place; Texas Rangers
4th Place; Los Angeles Angels
5th Place; Seattle Mariners
It took 3 divisions, finally predicted a 1st place team correctly at the expense of the rest of the placements. It's to no one's shock that the Astros finished 1st in the AL West once again, but I, for one, did not expect the A's to win 97 games for the 2nd consecutive season as well as the home-field advantage for tomorrow's game vs Tampa Bay.
The Angels find new ways to disappoint me each and every year. Despite signing Mike Trout to a historic extension, they have failed to surround the potential 2019 AL MVP with players that will help the team win.
The Rangers were a bit of a surprise as well, finishing in 3rd place, just above the Angels, while I predicted them to be dead last. Looking back on it, Seattle would've been a smarter decision considering they entered full-on rebuild in 2019.
NL East
1st Place; Philadelphia Phillies
2nd Place; Atlanta Braves
3rd Place; New York Mets
4th Place; Washington Nationals
5th Place; Miami Marlins
1st Place; Atlanta Braves
2nd Place; Washington Nationals
3rd Place; New York Mets
4th Place; Philadelphia Phillies
5th Place; Miami Marlins
Someone needs to explain to me how a Phillies team with such profound offensive talent finished 81-81, good enough for 4th place in the National League East. Out of all the surprises this MLB season, this one shocks me the most.
Who knows how much better the Mets would've fared if not for Edwin Diaz's disastrous 5.59 ERA. Even though the Braves captured the NL East crown last season, I figured that the young and inexperienced team wouldn't have what it takes to repeat.
Needless to say, I was wrong, just like how I predicted that the Nationals would need a few years to get back into the playoff picture following the departure of Bryce Harper.
NL Central
Original predictions
1st Place; Milwaukee Brewers
2nd Place; Chicago Cubs
3rd Place; St. Louis Cardinals
4th Place; Cincinnati Reds
5th Place; Pittsburgh Pirates
Actual results
1st Place; St. Louis Cardinals
2nd Place; Milwaukee Brewers
3rd Place; Chicago Cubs
4th Place; Cincinnati Reds
5th Place; Pittsburgh PiratesIt took them all 162 of their games, but the St. Louis Cardinals captured the NL Central title yesterday with a win over the Cubs, ending a 3-year absence from postseason play. Just like my #1 favorite team, the Cubs fell to 3rd place this year despite having a winning record. It just goes to show that the Red Sox, Indians, and Cubs aren't the top dogs in baseball anymore.
I didn't expect the Cardinals to beat out the Brewers for the division title, but it'll be interesting to watch this team play in October. As for Milwaukee, I foresee them falling to the Nationals in Wednesday's NL wild-card game.
NL West
Original predictions
2nd Place; Colorado Rockies
3rd Place; San Diego Padres
4th Place; San Francisco Giants
5th Place; Arizona Diamondbacks
1st Place; Los Angeles Dodgers
2nd Place; Arizona Diamondbacks
3rd Place; San Francisco Giants
4th Place; Colorado Rockies
5th Place; San Diego Padres
Aside from predicting the Dodgers' 7th straight NL West title correctly, this division was an absolute disaster for me. Though I had my reasons for placing the Rockies 2nd and the Diamondbacks last, baseball, more than any other sport, is full of unexpected outcomes.
Arizona, despite losing Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, and A.J. Pollock finished well above .500 and made a respectable run for the NL wild card. On the other hand, the Rockies suffered some major setbacks this season, due in large part to their starting pitching.
I've never been one to be overly accurate with my division predictions, and 2019 was no different from any other year. I did, however, make some pretty accurate choices, so I guess it wasn't all bad.
The award winner predictions, on the other hand, are an entirely different story.
Overall... you did pretty well. I didn't make any predictions, but I never ever would have predicted the Twins winning the AL Central or the Padres coming in last in the NL West. Ugh.
ReplyDeleteI predicted the Twins and Astros winning the Division but missed on everyone else. I'm most shocked about Phillies not winning and the Cardinals winning.
ReplyDeleteI'm impressed that you predicted the Twins winning the AL Central. I never would've guessed that, even though they made the playoffs 2 years ago.
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