2019 Predictions; NL Central

Last year, I was successful in predicting the outcome of the NL Central division. With every placement predicted correctly, it was my only perfect division last year.

Other than separating the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers, the 2018 NL Central division wasn't too difficult to predict. This year, however, there's a lot more grey area. Offseason acquisitions by the Cardinals and Reds are certain to shake up the division. 

Meanwhile, the Cubs have done the exact opposite over the last few months. Ownership justified the Cubs' not spending any money this offseason simply by stating something along the lines of "we don't have any to spend."

With the 4th highest payroll in all of Baseball, losing to the Brewers and Rockies in back-to-back one-game playoffs was a disappointing ending to Chicago's season. 

Moving on to the rest of the division, the Reds made a series of moves that included a blockbuster trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers. I'll go over that transaction when I talk about Cincinnati, but that move should at least take them out of the cellar of NL Central.

Although their 82-79 record in 2018 was promising, the Pirates don't seem destined to contend in what's shaping up to be one of Baseball's toughest divisions. On the bright side, they have star pitcher Chris Archer under contract through 2021, including a club option for the last 2 seasons. 

Along with the AL and NL East, the NL Central is bound to have 3 or 4 teams finish with a .500+ winning percentage, maybe even all 5. The real question with this division is where the teams will stack up following a major shake-up over the offseason.

1st Place; Milwaukee Brewers

I know we haven't seen the full impact that the Christian Yelich trade has left on Miami, but it's pretty safe to say that the Brewers won this trade. Milwaukee has the 2018 NL MVP under contract through the 2022 season, and they're only paying him around $12 million dollars per year.

In addition to Yelich, the Brewers might just have the best infield in all of Baseball. Jesus Aguilar, Travis Shaw, Orlando Arcia, and Mike Moustakas provide a balance of power as well as speed. As far as offense is concerned, it's hard to fault this Brewers team.

My main concern for the Brewers in 2019 is most definitely their rotation. Jhoulys Cachin is a reliable starter, but he's not the ace that Milwaukee needs for a World Series run. The rest of their rotation is a bit questionable, so if the Brewers find themselves in postseason contention once again, trading for a high-caliber starter at the deadline is essential.

2nd Place; Chicago Cubs

On paper, the Chicago Cubs are the most talented and well-balanced team in the NL Central. Unfortunately, their window for winning another World Series title could be closing if it hasn't already.

Kyle Schwarber is simply not progressing the way they hoped he would, and Addison Russell, another star from the 2016 World Series team, is walking on thin wire following a 40-game suspension. Even though they still have the pieces in place for a Fall Classic run, management and ownership seem to be holding the Cubs back. 

They still have Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, perennial MVP candidates, and a phenomenal rotation to back them up. However, the game is constantly changing, and the Cubs are not. Until they implement some major changes to keep up with the times, the Cubs won't match their 2016 performance for a long time.

3rd Place; St. Louis Cardinals

While the Cubs appear to be taking steps in the wrong direction, the Cardinals are making progress towards re-establishing themselves as a major threat in the National League. Just a few months after they made a blockbuster trade for 1st baseman Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis signed the 6-time All-Star to a 5-year $130 million dollar extension.

Although I'm slightly skeptical of Goldschmidt signing an extension with a team that he's never played for, he's an extremely consistent player and should fit in well in St. Louis. In addition to veteran hitters like Matt Carpenter and Paul DeJong, the Cardinals have an abundance of young players ready to prove themselves like Harrison Bader and Jack Flaherty.

St. Louis' .543 winning percentage in 2018 definitely came as a shock, yet the Cardinals still missed the playoffs once again, something they're not used to doing. While they don't seem ready for a World Series run in 2019, the Cardinals are shaping up to be a contender within the next few years so long as Goldschmidt continues to perform at a high level.

4th Place; Cincinnati Reds

One of the most puzzling trades of this year's offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds completed a blockbuster deal in mid-December. In a salary dump trade that saw the Reds trade multiple top prospects, Cincinnati received Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, and Yasiel Puig from LA.

I'm not sure what the Reds plan to do with all these new veteran players, especially given that it's Puig's contract season, but they should improve in 2019 if nothing else. Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett had breakout seasons in 2018 and remain some of Baseball's most underrated players.

And of course, franchise player and probable future Hall of Famer Joey Votto is still there as well. At 35-years old, I doubt he'll capture a World Series title in his career unless he's traded. Still, Votto seems to love playing in Cincinnati, even if the best they can do is finish 4th in the NL Central.

5th Place; Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates' first season in over a decade without franchise player Andrew McCutchen was surprisingly successful, but I don't expect that to continue in 2019. They may have a few respectable pieces here and there, but Pittsburgh lacks an impact player to take their team to the next level.

Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte have flashes of brilliance every now and then, but they both lack consistency. Chris Archer is dominant when it comes to strikeouts, but his ERA typically suffers. Besides those guys, I don't know a whole lot about this Pirates team. 

Regardless, I just don't see them being able to contend with the heavyweights in the NL Central.

Lost and Found

A common theme for this week seems to be stumbling upon cards that I had forgotten about over some period of time, likely due to how unorganized my collection can be. On Tuesday, I located some vintage oddballs from last years' National which appears to be the gift that keeps on giving.

It's not uncommon for something like this to happen but finding cards that I don't remember all too well or fear that I had lost highlights how much progress I still have to make with the organization of my collection. 

I finished a complete organizational overhaul of my player collections, both online and in boxes, last summer. I'm not sure how I'd do it for the rest of my collection, but it's something that needs to be done.

The reason for that is what I found in some miscellaneous card binders today, a reasonable selection of cards from 1961 Topps. Last Spring, I told myself I was going to start collecting the vintage set, but I didn't make significant progress until The National where I found a bunch of discounted cards from the set.

I don't think it'll be time to go too out of my way for cards from '61 Topps until I'm around halfway or more done with the product. With Juan Marichal's rookie card and Mickey Mantle's base card still missing from my set, it won't be a cheap Flagship product to complete.

But anytime you have a small stack of old cards turn up from binders, no matter who the players are, it's always a step in the right direction towards what can be a difficult and expensive process; completing a vintage Topps set.

One of my favorite parts of the 1961 Topps set is the highlights subset that pays homage to greats from the first 60 years of the 20th century who accomplished impressive feats. I'm not sure what the rhyme or reason is behind these cards, but a design like this would look excellent in one of those overpriced Topps Throwback Thursday sets.

This particular card is for Harvey Haddix who pitched 12 perfect innings against the Milwaukee Braves in 1959. Unfortunately, his efforts were in vain as the Pirates lost that game, but he went on to win the iconic 1960 World Series the following year.

The next card I found to go towards my 1961 Topps set commemorates the year 1903 when Christy Mathewson, one of the greatest pitchers of all-time, struck out 267 batters, quite an impressive total at the time. 

With a career 2.13 ERA and 373 wins, Mathewson certainly ranks in the top 5 of greatest pitchers to ever play the game. It's a bit harder to compare pitchers than it is hitters, but regardless, I'd put Mathewson in the top 3 or 4 with Walter Johnson at the #1 spot.

It's hard to imagine a player hitting much better than .350 in Baseball nowadays, but Rogers Hornsby hit a staggering .424 with the Cardinals back in 1924. It was a career high for Hornsby who would capture 7 batting titles on route to a .358 career batting average. Certainly, a card paying homage to one of his greatest seasons is worthy of a spot in the subset checklist.

However, my finds certainly weren't limited to just the Baseball Thrills cards, but I was able to find some top-tier base cards as well to help me on my way to completing the 589-card set. For most of Topps history, cards ending in 5 or 0 meant the player was one of the best in Baseball at the time, a good sign for me when I found Warren Spahn's card #200 in a random binder sitting on my shelf.

While we're talking about cards ending in 0, I should point out that I found another major card for my set, #120 of Spahn's teammate, Eddie Mathews. Granted, neither of these cards are in excellent shape,  but that's not what I'm going for with this set anyway. Simply completing a product as old as 1961 Topps would be a huge accomplishment, and I'll take any help I can get, especially if that help is 2 new cards of Hall of Fame players.

Even though I dedicate resources towards completing certain vintage sets, I don't typically worry about condition, and I've only once felt the need to upgrade a card, and that was a 1972 Topps in action card of Roberto Clemente, a card with enough creases to fall apart.

With that being said, I'm all for upgrading if a find a card in better condition within my collection, and that's exactly what happened today with this combo card of Sandy Koufax and Johnny Podres called Dodger Southpaws.

As you can tell, there's a pretty big difference in terms of centering when comparing the new card on the left and the old one on the right. Although quite simple, I've always loved the 1961 Topps combo cards in particular, and the Koufax and Podres card would have to be one of my favorites. 

Because of that, I'm glad that out of all the cards, this one got an upgrade.

Now, all that needs to happen is for me to find a 1961 Topps Mickey Mantle in a similar fashion, and I'll be well on my way towards finishing off this set.