When MLB announced the 8 Home Run Derby participants the other day, it occurred to me that the once much-anticipated event is not what it used to be. I realize baseball's changed since the days where David Ortiz and Albert Pujols graced the Home Run Derby field, but it's a known fact that fewer and fewer of MLB's greatest sluggers are participating in the derby.
If you take a look at the top 10 MLB leaders in home runs, only 2 of them (Aguilar and Harper) will be taking the field in the derby Monday night. Moreover, only 4 of the top 20 home run leaders will complete as Max Muncy and Alex Bregman join the group.
A lot of this can be traced back to the struggles of last years' Home Run Derby champion Aaron Judge who scuffled in July and August after winning the title. That's the main reason why he and his new teammate Giancarlo Stanton opted not to participate this year and likely why the 2 power-hitting Red Sox Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, among others, also chose not to compete.
So, we ended up with a derby consisting of 8 guys who can definitely hit home runs, but not the cream of the crop. Still, last years' derby generated the 2nd most views ever, so the event clearly still attracts many fans. Therefore, I thought I'd make my home run derby bracket predictions on this post, beginnings with the Jesus Aguilar vs Rhys Hoskins matchup.
Round 1:
#1 Jesus Aguilar vs #8 Rhys Hoskins
Winner: Jesus Aguilar
One of the more unexpected successes of 2018, Aguilar is a key part of the Brewers' .579 win percentage through the first 95 games this season. For me, this is an easy choice not just because Aguilar has 10 more dingers than Hoskins, but because of his exit velocity. Jesus not only knows how to hit the ball far, but he can hit it fast as well which is key in the Home Run Derby due to the rounds being timed instead of measured by outs like they used to be.
#4 Alex Bregman vs #5 Kyle Schwarber
Winner: #5 Kyle Schwarber
My first but not final upset comes in the well-contested 4 seed vs 5 seed matchup. In this case, it Cubs star outfielder Kyle Schwarber who has done well to bounce back from his lackluster 2017 season. He will face the stellar defensive and offensive 3rd baseman for the Houston Astros, Alex Bregman. While Bregman has more homers and has a better average, Schwarber's dingers are incredibly impressive due to the incredible distances they travel. This will definitely help him out as he looks ready to smash some dingers in D.C. on Monday.
#2 Bryce Harper vs #7 Freddie Freeman
Winner: #2 Bryce Harper
Although Freddie Freeman is on pace for an MVP season as well as the first 30 homer and 100 RBI season of his career, it can't really be disputed that Harper is a better home run hitter. Although Harper has struggles (big time) to hit for contact this season, the 25-year old definitely knows how to hit for power. As I mentioned before, Harper is one of 2 players in the top 10 in home runs to participate in the derby. Even though I realize Freeman will give it his all, I just don't think it'll be enough.
#3 Max Muncy vs #7 Javier Baez
Winner: #3 Javier Baez
Even though Baez is a Cub and has fewer homers (18) than Muncy (22), I still feel he has an excellent shot at advancing past Dodgers phenom Max Muncy and making it to the 2nd round. Nothing against Muncy, but I haven't really seen enough from him to choose him over Baez. Muncy has been hot this year, but he doesn't have the career numbers that Javier Baez has. Javy has had a breakout season so far, culminating in an All-Star starting spot. If he brings everything he's got to the derby, he'll make it to round 2.
Round 2:
#1 Jesus Aguilar vs #5 Kyle Schwarber
Winner: #5 Kyle Schwarber
Unfortunately for Jesus Aguilar, this is where his lack of big league experience is going to cost him. He currently sits at 40 career home runs while Schwarber has 63 plus the experience of playing on a big stage. The pressure may not get to Schwarber the way I could see it get to Aguilar. Plus, Aguilar has the All-Star game to play in the next day while Schwarber doesn't and if that's not enough, there's still the valid argument that Schwarber's power is nearly unparalleled by the rest of the derby participants.
#6 Javier Baez vs #2 Bryce Harper
Winner: #2 Bryce Harper
Even though Javier Baez is playing better than anyone has ever seen the 25-year old play before, Bryce Harper is a seasoned veteran compared to him. While Javier Baez currently sits at 65 career dingers, Harper is likely to reach 200 home runs early next year, whatever team he may play for by then. Harper currently sits at 173 career dingers and has had derby experience before. Do I think it will be close? Yes, but Bryce Harper will be the one to come out on top.
Final Matchup: #5 Kyle Schwarber vs #2 Bryce Harper
2018 Home Run Derby Champion: #5 Kyle Schwarber
Even though all those power swings could leave Kyle Schwarber tired by the end of the night, he has nothing to lose, so he'll definitely give it his all. He doesn't have to take the field Tuesday, but Harper does. Additionally, Schwarber has been hitting for better contact than Harper this year which will eventually help him out. In the derby, balls that are usually hit for doubles can become homers due to the speed of the pitches thrown. Well, Harper has 23 homers and 14 doubles while Schwarber has 17 dingers, 10 doubles, and a swing that could turn almost any pitch into a home run. Even though he's the underdog up against Harper, I'm going Schwarber all the way in the 2018 Home Run Derby.
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