Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Who's Going Where

Given the pace of last year's offseason and how long it took for marquee free agents like Manny Machado and Bryce Harper to sign their respective contracts, I probably don't have to write my 2019-20 offseason predictions so soon after the World Series came to an end.

Following Nick Markakis' decision to re-up with the Braves on a 1-year $4 million contract, I realized that any of the free agents, however unlikely it may be, could resign in the following days.

In what has become a tradition for me to write about each year, I figured I'd make my free agency predictions before it's too late. Even if they turn out as blatantly incorrect as last year's, at least I'll have my picks in writing before anything major happens.

This year, I'm hoping to get at least one prediction right, something I failed to accomplish last time around. Given the unpredictability of the game, however, particularly free agency, I don't know how feasible this is.

Gerrit Cole to the Los Angeles Angels
Last year, I made a couple of unconventional picks (Harper to the Cardinals: seriously, what was I thinking?) to go against some of the more widespread trade rumors. Well, you saw where that got me, so I've decided to go with some more expected choices this time around.

During what will likely prove to be his final press conference as a member of the Houston Astros, Gerrit Cole wore a Scott Boras hat, visibly upset by manager A.J. Hinch's refusal to put him in the game towards the end of the Fall Classic against the Nationals.

Given his ties to California and the management's desire to build a talented team around Mike Trout, Cole to the Angels makes a ton of sense.

Stephen Strasburg back to the Washington Nationals
You're probably thinking, rightfully so, that no one resigns with their previous team anymore, so it doesn't make sense for Strasburg to opt-out of his contract with the Nationals only to stay in D.C. Personally, I don't think the city/team is an issue for the 31-year old; rather, it was the 4-year $100 million remaining on his contract. 

Following a World Series in which he was the MVP, Strasburg can earn more than ~$25 million a year, and I firmly believe that Washington, to keep the team together, will give it to him.

Anthony Rendon back to the Washington Nationals
I'm sure the Nationals want nothing more than to sign Anthony Rendon to a max extension, ensuring that he plays most if not all of his career in D.C. 

However, it remains to be determined whether they can bring back the MVP candidate in addition to Stephen Strasburg given their current contracts for guys like Scherzer and Corbin. 

If it comes down to Rendon or Strasburg, I maintain that Washington will bring back the former, causing the 31-year old to sign elsewhere.

Jose Abreu back to the Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox is the only team that Jose Abreu has ever known since he made his MLB debut back in 2014. Though he's exceeded expectations in terms of his consistency and serves as a leader in the clubhouse, there isn't all that high of a demand for the 32-year old.

With young stars like Eloy Jimenez and top prospect Luis Robert ushering in a new era for the South Siders, something that Abreu most likely won't want to miss out on. Barring any reluctance from ownership, Abreu should be back with the White Sox by Opening Day in 2020.

Josh Donaldson to the St. Louis Cardinals
Donaldson was able to reinvent himself as a member of the Atlanta Braves in 2019, but will a team led by young stars like Ronald Acuña Jr and Ozzie Albies be willing to resign a 33-year old (almost 34) who is past his prime?

The Cardinals, on the other hand, surprised everyone in 2019 by beating Atlanta in the NLDS, including a 13-1 showing that catapulted St. Louis into the next round. If the Cardinals are looking for one piece to complete their championship-contending team, Donaldson could be their guy.

Marcell Ozuna back to the St. Louis Cardinals
Although Ozuna hasn't been able to replicate the breakout 2017 season that he had with Miami, he's been open about how much he loves St. Louis and his willingness to remain a member of the St. Louis Cardinals.

He was one of the players who received a $17.8 million qualifying offer, and given the fact that he didn't have the greatest 2019 season, it makes sense for the 28-year old to accept the offer and remain a Cardinal for one more year. That way, if he bounces back in 2020, he'll make more money in the following offseason.

Didi Gregorius back to the New York Yankees
In spite of all the injuries that plagued the New York Yankees this season, and there were a lot of them, the team persevered and finished with one of the best records in Baseball.

Though players like Gio Urshela and Mike Tauchman were able to shine in the absence of guys like Andujar and Gregorius, there's not much doubt in my mind that those two stars will get their groove back and make their way back into the starting lineup.

I simply don't foresee the Yankees letting a talented player like Gregorius walk, particularly if they could sign him for less than, say, they would've 2 years ago. Simply put, they're too smart to let him go.

Madison Bumgarner to the Atlanta Braves
Despite obtaining more success than any other team this decade, the San Francisco Giants are going in a very different direction this offseason than they have in the past. Long-time manager Bruce Bochy has retired, and the club's ace, Madison Bumgarner, has virtually no chance of returning.

Instead, Bumgarner would be an excellent fit for a team that needs help with pitching as well as a veteran presence in the rotation. If Atlanta doesn't work out, Bumgarner could end up with the Angels if Cole decides to sign elsewhere. 

One thing's for sure, the 3 aces on the market (Cole, Bumgarner, Strasburg) will make for an interesting free agency.

Mike Moustakas to the Tampa Bay Rays
I made this prediction last offseason as well before Moustakas decided to sign a 1-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. However, I don't know how dedicated the Brewers are to keeping him around, but I firmly believe that he will still attract a couple of clubs.

Granted, the market hasn't been kind to 30+-year old sluggers over the past few offseasons, but Moustakas is more of a low-risk, high-reward type of guy, perfect for a young team like Tampa Bay without a ton of money to spend over the next few months.

2 comments:

  1. I sure hope that Rendon and Strasburg go back to the Nationals. As for Cole... the Angels are the name I keep hearing from everyone. I'd rather he stick with the Astros... but I guess ultimately the Angels would be better than the Yankees.

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