Showing posts with label offseason predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label offseason predictions. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Who's Going Where

Given the pace of last year's offseason and how long it took for marquee free agents like Manny Machado and Bryce Harper to sign their respective contracts, I probably don't have to write my 2019-20 offseason predictions so soon after the World Series came to an end.

Following Nick Markakis' decision to re-up with the Braves on a 1-year $4 million contract, I realized that any of the free agents, however unlikely it may be, could resign in the following days.

In what has become a tradition for me to write about each year, I figured I'd make my free agency predictions before it's too late. Even if they turn out as blatantly incorrect as last year's, at least I'll have my picks in writing before anything major happens.

This year, I'm hoping to get at least one prediction right, something I failed to accomplish last time around. Given the unpredictability of the game, however, particularly free agency, I don't know how feasible this is.

Gerrit Cole to the Los Angeles Angels
Last year, I made a couple of unconventional picks (Harper to the Cardinals: seriously, what was I thinking?) to go against some of the more widespread trade rumors. Well, you saw where that got me, so I've decided to go with some more expected choices this time around.

During what will likely prove to be his final press conference as a member of the Houston Astros, Gerrit Cole wore a Scott Boras hat, visibly upset by manager A.J. Hinch's refusal to put him in the game towards the end of the Fall Classic against the Nationals.

Given his ties to California and the management's desire to build a talented team around Mike Trout, Cole to the Angels makes a ton of sense.

Stephen Strasburg back to the Washington Nationals
You're probably thinking, rightfully so, that no one resigns with their previous team anymore, so it doesn't make sense for Strasburg to opt-out of his contract with the Nationals only to stay in D.C. Personally, I don't think the city/team is an issue for the 31-year old; rather, it was the 4-year $100 million remaining on his contract. 

Following a World Series in which he was the MVP, Strasburg can earn more than ~$25 million a year, and I firmly believe that Washington, to keep the team together, will give it to him.

Anthony Rendon back to the Washington Nationals
I'm sure the Nationals want nothing more than to sign Anthony Rendon to a max extension, ensuring that he plays most if not all of his career in D.C. 

However, it remains to be determined whether they can bring back the MVP candidate in addition to Stephen Strasburg given their current contracts for guys like Scherzer and Corbin. 

If it comes down to Rendon or Strasburg, I maintain that Washington will bring back the former, causing the 31-year old to sign elsewhere.

Jose Abreu back to the Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox is the only team that Jose Abreu has ever known since he made his MLB debut back in 2014. Though he's exceeded expectations in terms of his consistency and serves as a leader in the clubhouse, there isn't all that high of a demand for the 32-year old.

With young stars like Eloy Jimenez and top prospect Luis Robert ushering in a new era for the South Siders, something that Abreu most likely won't want to miss out on. Barring any reluctance from ownership, Abreu should be back with the White Sox by Opening Day in 2020.

Josh Donaldson to the St. Louis Cardinals
Donaldson was able to reinvent himself as a member of the Atlanta Braves in 2019, but will a team led by young stars like Ronald Acuña Jr and Ozzie Albies be willing to resign a 33-year old (almost 34) who is past his prime?

The Cardinals, on the other hand, surprised everyone in 2019 by beating Atlanta in the NLDS, including a 13-1 showing that catapulted St. Louis into the next round. If the Cardinals are looking for one piece to complete their championship-contending team, Donaldson could be their guy.

Marcell Ozuna back to the St. Louis Cardinals
Although Ozuna hasn't been able to replicate the breakout 2017 season that he had with Miami, he's been open about how much he loves St. Louis and his willingness to remain a member of the St. Louis Cardinals.

He was one of the players who received a $17.8 million qualifying offer, and given the fact that he didn't have the greatest 2019 season, it makes sense for the 28-year old to accept the offer and remain a Cardinal for one more year. That way, if he bounces back in 2020, he'll make more money in the following offseason.

Didi Gregorius back to the New York Yankees
In spite of all the injuries that plagued the New York Yankees this season, and there were a lot of them, the team persevered and finished with one of the best records in Baseball.

Though players like Gio Urshela and Mike Tauchman were able to shine in the absence of guys like Andujar and Gregorius, there's not much doubt in my mind that those two stars will get their groove back and make their way back into the starting lineup.

I simply don't foresee the Yankees letting a talented player like Gregorius walk, particularly if they could sign him for less than, say, they would've 2 years ago. Simply put, they're too smart to let him go.

Madison Bumgarner to the Atlanta Braves
Despite obtaining more success than any other team this decade, the San Francisco Giants are going in a very different direction this offseason than they have in the past. Long-time manager Bruce Bochy has retired, and the club's ace, Madison Bumgarner, has virtually no chance of returning.

Instead, Bumgarner would be an excellent fit for a team that needs help with pitching as well as a veteran presence in the rotation. If Atlanta doesn't work out, Bumgarner could end up with the Angels if Cole decides to sign elsewhere. 

One thing's for sure, the 3 aces on the market (Cole, Bumgarner, Strasburg) will make for an interesting free agency.

Mike Moustakas to the Tampa Bay Rays
I made this prediction last offseason as well before Moustakas decided to sign a 1-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. However, I don't know how dedicated the Brewers are to keeping him around, but I firmly believe that he will still attract a couple of clubs.

Granted, the market hasn't been kind to 30+-year old sluggers over the past few offseasons, but Moustakas is more of a low-risk, high-reward type of guy, perfect for a young team like Tampa Bay without a ton of money to spend over the next few months.

Saturday, November 17, 2018

Slightly Late Offseason Predictions

Normally, I would've liked to have my free-agent signing predictions posted before all the BBWAA awards were announced, but free agency has been rather stagnant so far. Luckily, as long as no major free-agent signs a contract in the next 30 minutes, these predictions will be good to go as the rest of the MLB offseason progresses.

In what is definitely one of the most stacked free-agencies we've seen in years, franchise players, MVPs, Cy Young award winners, and top-tier relief pitchers are all gracing the market. 

If there's one thing that players like Mike Moustakas, Alex Cobb, and J.D. Martinez taught us last year, both sides are willing to wait on a deal, no matter how long it takes. 

That's why I've chosen 11 of the best free agents of this season to make my predictions for. Some of the players selected due to them being the top-tier names, others because I couldn't find cards of players like Joe Kelly or Michael Brantley to scan.

So far, Steve Pearce has resigned with Boston, causing me to be filled with joy, but not much else has happened. The following are the signings I'm predicting have a high likelihood of occurring over the next 4 months or so, starting with undoubtedly the 2 biggest names of the offseason.

Bryce Harper to the St. Louis Cardinals

Unexpectedly, the Cardinals became late-season contenders in 2018 due to strong managing and a strong balance between young players and veterans. Assuming their veteran outfielder and 36 home run hitter Matt Carpenter returns, he'd have a lot to teach 25-year old Bryce Harper if St. Louis is willing to spend big money to bring in the 2015 NL MVP. Then again, maybe he's the piece they need to contend for the NL Central title once again.

Manny Machado to the Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies certainly have a young core on par with the Atlanta Braves for the top spot in the NL East. Unfortunately for Phillies fans, their team didn't have the strongest 2nd half as the team slipped from 1st place to the Wild Card spot and finally, were eliminated from playoff contention.

Truth be told, Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins, and Aaron Nola may fall just short of being the leaders of the new-age Phillies team. By adding Manny Machado, Philadelphia could easily be a championship contender just other Philly teams like the Eagles and 76ers, assuming Machado checks his attitude before taking the field at Citizens Bank Park.

Dallas Keuchel to the New York Yankees

He'd have to shave his beard, but other than that, Dallas Keuchel seems like he'd fit right in with the New York Yankees given how shaky their pitching appeared in the ALDS. Even Brian Cashman said so, declaring that Masahiro Tanaka was the only reliable one in the playoffs against Boston. If New York lets Happ walk, there's no reason why they wouldn't bring Keuchel in as his replacement.

Wilson Ramos to the Atlanta Braves

Although it's hard to find a weak spot on the Atlanta Braves 2018 NL East winning team, the one piece they could use to progress even farther in 2018 is a new catcher. Current backstop Kurt Suzuki did a solid job this year, but solid isn't what the Braves should be looking for after a 2018 campaign that way exceeded expectations.

Ramos has played for the Phillies and Nationals, meaning he could be a powerful tool in taking down the 2 biggest threats to Atlanta in their division. All these factors make Ramos a near-perfect fit for Atlanta in 2019, even if it's a 1 or 2-year deal for the 31-year catcher.

DJ LeMahieu back to the Colorado Rockies

Given that the Rockies are at risk of losing many valuable players like Carlos Gonzalez and Adam Ottavino to free agency, it's vital that they bring back as many of their players from their 91-win team. 

One of baseball's most underrated players, LeMahieu is a career .298 hitter who has captured 3 gold gloves and the 2016 batting title. He's only 30 and seems like a loyal type, so he should be one of the easier pieces for the Rockies to bring back in hopes of finally taking home the division title over the Dodgers.

Andrew McCutchen to the Los Angeles Angels

His 2018 spent with the Giants and Yankees was altogether disappointing, but there's no reason to count out the 2013 NL MVP Andrew McCutchen, especially if he finds the right team. Why not the Angels, a team that always appears to be lacking a piece or 2 to become a threat in the AL West. He could play DH when Ohtani isn't in the lineup, and moving Justin Upton to right field to have Cutch play left like he did in New York is far from impossible.

Adam Jones to the Seattle Mariners

God Bless Adam Jones, but he deserves better than what he's getting in Baltimore. At the age of 33, Jones shouldn't have to be stuck with a 100-loss team in full rebuild. Instead, he should contribute what he can to an up and coming club, especially if he's played for that team before. 

The Mariners slowly dipped beginning in the Summer and couldn't recover no matter what. I don't know all the details, but they should be able to find Jones a place on the team, whether it be at DH or moving Dee Gordon to a corner outfield position. One thing's for sure, he has plenty left in the tank, having hit .281 in 2018.

Josh Donaldson back to the Cleveland Indians

If Cleveland feels they can work with Jose Ramirez at 2nd base and Jason Kipnis in the outfield, then there's no reason why they shouldn't try to bring back former AL MVP Josh Donaldson, if they believe he's healthy enough for a complete 2019 season. 

There were 3 100-win teams in the AL in 2018, and the Indians were not one of them, having been blown out big time by Houston in the ALDS. A full season from Donaldson at 3rd base would help the Indians contend once again in the American League. People tend to forget how good he used to be, and it seems he could be signed to a fairly cheap deal and utilized throughout the season.

Mike Moustakas to the Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays were one of the biggest surprises of 2018, having won 90 games. Unfortunately, they played in the AL East with the 108-win Red Sox and the 100-win Yankees. Even though they had pieces traded throughout the season, I could see the Rays contending for a Wild Card spot if they bring in a free agent or 2. 

Mike Moustakas is a proven veteran at 3rd baseman who took a small step back this year. Despite that, he's pretty well-rounded and can be brought in on a relatively short and inexpensive deal.

Craig Kimbrel to the Atlanta Braves

It pains me to say this, but Craig Kimbrel is all but likely to return to the Boston Red Sox. Coming off an iffy season by his standards, Kimbrel could certainly be looking for a new team as he enters his age-31 season. He spent 3 seasons in Boston, but now, Kimbrel could be returning to the city where his career first started; Atlanta.

The Braves, as I said before, are ready to make an even bigger splash in 2019, possibly make it to the NLCS and beyond. In need of a bullpen boost, the Braves could bring back their former superstar closer and officially establish themselves as the team to beat in the NL.